Trump threatened to impose hefty tariffs on countries implementing digital taxes, SHFE tin prices maintained a fluctuating trend [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning News on August 26, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) jumped initially and then pulled back slightly during the night session, maintaining a fluctuating trend afterward. It closed at 269,200 yuan/mt, up by 0.07% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) US President Trump posted the latest message on social media: "I warn all countries that impose digital taxes, legislation, rules, or regulations that unless these discriminatory measures are removed, I, as President of the United States, will impose substantial additional tariffs on these countries' exports to the US and implement export restrictions on our highly protected technologies and chips. Please respect the US and our outstanding technology companies, or else, bear the consequences!" (2) The China Passenger Car Association released the June 2025 Automotive Intelligent Connectivity Insight Report. From January to June, the overall installation rate of AEB (Autonomous Emergency Braking) performed well, with the overall installation rate in passenger vehicles reaching 64.4%. Passenger vehicles priced between 160,000 and 240,000 yuan accounted for 75.4% of the total, and there is still room for growth. The AEB installation rate in the passenger NEV market has reached 67.1%. The integration of multi-dimensional technologies and continuous optimization of hardware costs have driven the continuous improvement of AEB capabilities. (3) The China Passenger Car Association released the June 2025 Automotive Intelligent Connectivity Insight Report. From January to June 2025, the installation rate of L2-level and above assisted driving functions in passenger NEVs reached 82.6%, with further growth in the installation rate of intelligent driving in the market priced below 160,000 yuan. With the leapfrog improvement in technology and the continuous decline in hardware and software costs, the adoption rate of intelligent driving assistance functions continues to rise.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: The overall tin ore supply in major supply regions such as Yunnan has tightened. In August, some smelters may maintain production halts for maintenance or implement slight production cuts (bullish ★). (2) Demand-side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin strips in east China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. Electronics industry: Electronic terminals in south China have entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only meeting just-in-time procurement needs. Other sectors: Demand in areas such as tinplate and chemicals remains stable, with no unexpected growth observed.

Spot Market: The spot market remained sluggish yesterday, with most downstream and end-user enterprises maintaining a wait-and-see attitude due to the price increase near 270,000 yuan, only engaging in a small amount of just-in-time procurement.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]